Iliyan Vassilev, a former Bulgarian ambassador to Russia and an energy expert, has highlighted a series of major falsehoods propagated by GERB officials regarding the project. Among these, Vassilev refuted the assertion that Boyko Borissov and Bulgaria terminated the South Stream project voluntarily, clarifying that external factors such as the annexation of Crimea and strained relations between Italian firm "Eni" and "Gazprom" led to its cessation. Vassilev emphasized Bulgaria's limited influence in stopping such projects, stressing that the nation lacked the leverage to halt South Stream independently.
Moreover, Vassilev raised concerns about Bulgaria's asymmetrical dependence resulting from the project, citing approximately BGN 1 billion in lost benefits from a rejected contract and incurred debt from project construction costs. He criticized authorities for claiming the project ensured Russian gas supply at low prices while failing to secure transit benefits for Bulgaria. Despite contractual agreements, Russia halted gas supplies to Bulgaria in April 2022, favoring transit interests over direct supply to Bulgaria. Vassilev questioned the national interest behind the project, refuting claims that if the pipeline bypassed Bulgaria, it would bypass the country entirely. He argued that diverting the pipeline to Italy would be logistically unfeasible and pointed out Greece's inability to replace Bulgaria in the project due to conflicting interests with its participation in the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline.
Vassilev also expressed concerns over Bulgaria's continued reliance on Russian gas, noting that complete cessation of gas transit by 2027, as advocated by the European Commission, would pose bankruptcy risks for Bulgartransgaz. Consequently, Bulgarian representatives often oppose complete refusal of Russian gas during EU votes, according to Vassilev. Notably, Russian gas transit through Bulgaria in 2022 and 2023 yielded billion in revenues for Gazprom.
Regarding the "TurkStream" project, Vassilev highlighted its significance in bolstering Russian geopolitical influence, connecting leaders such as Erdogan, Radev, Vucic, and Orban. He criticized GERB leader Boyko Borissov's purported pride in the project's achievement, emphasizing its alignment with Russian interests.
Furthermore, Lyubo Venkov from "BOEC" highlighted the lack of institutional response to reported irregularities associated with the project. Despite documenting paramilitary presence (like "Wagner" PMC) and undocumented labor along the pipeline route, no significant action was taken by Bulgarian institutions, except for a response from the European Prosecutor's Office. Venkov also revealed receiving threats and being wiretapped in connection with their actions, underscoring the challenges faced in exposing Russian espionage activities. Although assurances were received regarding the establishment of a temporary commission by the National Assembly, concrete action remains elusive, raising concerns over accountability and oversight in Bulgaria's energy projects.
This investigation into Bulgaria's involvement in the "TurkStream gas pipeline project revealed a complex web of political decisions, irregularities, and implications. The ruling party, GERB, is accused of knowingly approving the project, which facilitated Putin's gas transit bypassing Ukraine but failed to benefit Bulgaria financially. Most importantly, the project facilitated Putin's objectives prior to the war in Ukraine in several ways:
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Bypassing Ukraine: By establishing an alternative route for natural gas transit through Bulgaria, the "TurkStream" pipeline allowed Russia to circumvent Ukraine entirely. This significantly reduced Ukraine's leverage in negotiations with Russia over gas transit fees and terms, weakening Ukraine's strategic position in the region.
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Reducing Dependency on Ukrainian Transit: Prior to the completion of the "TurkStream" pipeline, a significant portion of Russian natural gas exports to Europe passed through Ukraine. By diverting these flows through the new pipeline, Russia decreased its reliance on Ukrainian transit routes, thereby diminishing Ukraine's importance as a transit country for Russian gas.
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Economic Pressure on Ukraine: The "TurkStream" project contributed to Ukraine's economic challenges by depriving the country of transit fees and diminishing its role in the European natural gas market. This economic pressure further weakened Ukraine's position vis-à-vis Russia, making it more susceptible to Russian influence and coercion.
Overall, the "TurkStream" project served as a strategic tool for Putin to exert influence over Ukraine's energy sector, reduce Ukraine's bargaining power, and advance Russia's geopolitical interests in the region.