Plevneliev, Kalfin Set for Bulgarian Presidential Vote Runoff - Poll

Ruling party GERB's candidate Rosen Plevneliev and opposition Socialist Party's bidder Ivaylo Kalfin will face one another at the runoff of the Bulgarian presidential elections, a poll predicts.

A total of 30.8% of the eligible voters in Bulgaria will back ex Regional Development Minister Rosen Plevneliev, the candidate of PM Boyko Borisov's center-right party, for the Presidency, according to the public opinion poll of Center for Analysis and Marketing, announced its director Yuliy Pavlov.

Former Foreign Minister Ivaylo Kalfin from the Bulgarian Socialist Party is expected to come in second with 16.1%, while ex EU Commissioner Meglena Kuneva, running as an independent candidate, is predicted to get 9.8% of the votes.

According to the Center for Analysis and Marketing, Rumen Hristov from the rightist Union of Democratic Forces enjoys the support of 3.1% of the voters.

He is followed by two nationalists: Volen Siderov, head of the nationalist party Ataka, who made it to the runoff against Socialist candidate Georgi Parvanov back in 2006, is now predicted to get a meager 2.3%. Another vocal nationalist, VMRO party leader Krasimir Karakachanov is predicted to attract 1.5% of the votes.

All other candidates, including former undercover agent Aleksei Petrov, said to be a mafia boss, according to the Interior Ministry, which has so far failed to prove its allegations, get under 1%, the poll shows.

Pavlov expects that 54% of the eligible voters, or about 3.3 million people, will vote in the first round of the presidential and local elections on October 23, 2011.

According to the poll results GERB's Yordanka Fandakova is certain to be reelected as Sofia Mayor at first round, beating overwhelmingly Socialist candidate Georgi Kadiev, whom she defeated back in 2009.

Pavlov has warned, however, that if ethnic tensions grow as a result of the murder of a 19-year-old Bulgarian Angel Petrov in the village of Katunitsa last week, which led to anti-Roma protests across Bulgaria, it is unclear how that may affect the vote of the Presidency and the local authorities.

"I think that things will be kept under control. I see that there are already some actions," the sociologist said Thursday.

Bulgaria's current EU Commissioner Kristalina Georgieva retains the highest public rating of all politicians with almost 65% of public trust.

Prime Minister Boyko Borisov remains second with 50.3% surpassing presidential candidate Rosen Plevneliev by 2%. Plevneliev used to be ahead of Borisov in the recent months before his name was tangled in a bribery scandal over the construction of Sofia Business Park several years ago.

Sofia Mayor Yordanka Fandakova comes in fourth with 45.2% approval, while Stefan Danailov, a popular actor, and vice presidential candidate of the Bulgarian Socialist Party is fifth with 44.6%.

Danailov is twice as popular as Socialist candidate for the Presidency, Ivaylo Kalfin, who is ranked 11th with only 28.5% of public approval.

Bulgaria's outgoing President Georgi Parvanov is ranked 6th, retaining the trust of 42.2% of the people in the country, according to the poll.

The survey further indicates that only three political parties would make it beyond the 4% barrier for the Parliament if Bulgaria was to hold general elections. Ruling center-right party GERB is predicted to get 33% of the votes, the Bulgarian Socialist Party would be second with 17.7% of the votes, and the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms DPS would be third with 6.7%.

The rightist Union of Democratic Forces is predicted to get 2.7% of the votes, the nationalist party Ataka would fare even worse with 2.6%, while the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria, the nationalists from VMRO, former Tsar Simeon Saxe-Coburg's party NMSP, and the vocal conservative party RZS would each about 1% of the votes or fewer.

The public opinion poll of the Center for Analysis and Marketing survey 1 612 respondents, and was carried out between September 14 and September 23.

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