The Sunday Herald
The entry of Bulgaria and Romania into the European Union last week once again ledtofearsfromcertain quarters of the press and members of British society over another wave of migrants landing on our doorstep.
Their concerns are backed by the fact that the government made such a colossal error in its predictions of how many migrants would seek work in Britain following the last EU enlargement in 2004. The government's forecast that 13,000 people from the eight central eastern European countries would come to the UK has become something of a joke given that, by some estimates, at least 600,000 have arrived during the past two years.
Indeed, there is something to be said about the government's inability to accurately count migration flows. Its worker registration scheme does not account for the self-employed, students or dependents, nor those that do not bother to register their employment. In this regard, the UK must find a more comprehensive way of tracking migration as this can have a significant impact on future economic policy.
But that does not mean Bulgarians and Romanians will be arriving in their hundreds of thousands. These kinds of forecasts are never absolute but there is considerable evidence to suggest that the UK does not top the list of destinations. Many prefer to head to closer countries with similar languagessuchasSpain,France and Italy; or countries with stronger historical links such as Germany and Austria.
Taking these factors into account, CapitalEconomicsconsultancy predicts that 50,000 Romanians and Bulgarians will come to the UK in 2007 and another 50,000 in 2008. Because of the restrictions imposed by the UK government, some of these people could come as tourists and disappear into the black market.
Thesenumbersmaybeoffset by some Polish and Czech migrants returning home to take advantage of their improving economies. And there is a belief that highly educatedBulgariansand Romanians could fill skills shortages in technology and oil companies in Scotland.
Many argue that migrant labour keeps wages low and inflation down as well as creating a flexible workforce. As we have seen with the Polish community, some migrants stay and start new businesses that will create jobs. These are all valid arguments. But even if no discernible benefit was evident, that would still not negate one important fact: the UK decided long ago to become a member of the single market called the European Union and millions of Brits have since enjoyed the privilege of moving to Spain, France, Italy and elsewhere to live and work. Eventually, all new members will have to get the same opportunity. Either the British population has to take on the duties and responsibilities that go along with the benefits or it has to rethink its membership of the club.
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